Preface: As the physical embodiment of AI, the advancement of robotics is intertwined with technological innovation, the upgrading of the manufacturing sector, and the enhancement of economic efficiency.

The global industrial landscape is undergoing a transformation, and the 'National Strategy' advocated by US robotics firms aims to consolidate domestic industries and significantly impact the global robotics market.

Author | Fang Wensan | Image Source | Network

US Businesses Urge Launch of National Robotics Strategy

The US business community is urging the government to develop a national robotics strategy to propel the intelligent robotics industry forward and establish a federal agency to foster the development of next-generation robots in international competition.

Following key sectors like chips and AI, the US government and Congress may integrate the development of the intelligent robotics industry into national strategic planning.

On Wednesday, Eastern Time, representatives from US robotics companies, including Tesla, Boston Dynamics, and Agile Robotics, visited Capitol Hill to meet with lawmakers and advocate for a national robotics strategy.

They proposed establishing a federal agency focused on fostering the robotics industry to assist US companies in developing the next generation of robots for international competition.

The Association for Advancing Automation (A3) stated that a national robotics strategy would help US robotics firms expand production and promote robots as a practical application of AI.

The organization noted that China and several other countries have already formulated similar plans.

In a statement, A3 warned that the absence of such leadership could cause the US to lag behind not only in robotics but also in the broader AI race.

A3 further recommended that the US government implement tax incentives and provide federal funding for academic research and commercial innovation in the robotics industry.

Given the fierce global competition in this sector and the increasing complexity of technology, the establishment of a new federal robotics office is deemed necessary.

Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, noted that while China and the US are progressing side by side in AI technology, the US may still hold several advantages in robotics technology.

Many companies have announced plans to commence mass production of humanoid robots in 2025, seen as a key indicator of operational stability and a strategy to reduce production costs through economies of scale.

Against the backdrop of rapid global robotics industry growth, China has made substantial progress in robotics, showcasing immense development potential due to its robust manufacturing base, strong government support, and enterprise innovation.

These issues limit the development potential of the US robotics industry. Without effective measures, the US may gradually fall behind in the global robotics economy, miss out on the development opportunities of this key sector, and potentially cede labor market advantages to China.

This is the fundamental reason why US businesses advocate for the establishment of a National Robotics Office – they hope to enhance overall competitiveness through government-level coordination and resource integration to address competitive challenges from China.

If implemented, the impact of this strategy will be multifaceted.

In the technology realm, the US is expected to further solidify its leading position in high-end robotics technology.

For instance, the synergy between Boston Dynamics' expertise in dynamic balancing and motion control technology and Tesla's AI and automated production capabilities could drive new advancements in cutting-edge areas such as humanoid robots and medical robots in the US.

In the market arena, the US may accelerate the penetration of its robotics products in the global market through policy support and subsidies, thereby reducing the market share of countries like China.

By setting technical standards and fostering international cooperation, the US could also establish a US-led global robotics industry ecosystem, further reinforcing its dominant position in the supply chain and value chain.

However, implementing this strategy is not without challenges.

The robotics industry demands long-term capital investment and technological accumulation, and the US government's financial situation and political divisions may limit the implementation strength of its strategy.

Secondly, the US's lack of a manufacturing base could become a significant obstacle to the mass production of robots.

The US Underperforms in Multiple Areas of the Robotics Industry

High-volume, high-quality, low-cost manufacturing capabilities are concentrated in countries like China, an area where the US struggles to compete, especially given its continued reliance on China for raw material supplies.

In the US, the so-called 'Made in USA' label sometimes misleads consumers and may even have adverse effects.

According to the Substantial Transformation Principle, foreign raw materials, particularly from China, can be processed in a third country, subsequently assembled in the US, and labeled 'Made in USA', concealing the actual supply chain dependency.

Many US companies exploit this legal loophole by importing cheap raw materials from China, processing them into robotics hardware, and labeling them 'Originating in the United States', undermining the market competitiveness of truly domestic enterprises.

This issue is not only difficult to discuss but also challenging to resolve.

Achieving large-scale production of industrial robots is far more complex and time-consuming than anticipated.

The global supply chain is highly specialized, with many key component productions already dominated by countries with cost advantages.

Supply chain disruptions have repeatedly impacted the Western economy.

Although the US excels in cutting-edge technology industries, it lacks a national strategy and faces a severe manufacturing outsourcing problem.

Due to high manufacturing costs, it is difficult for the US to compete with Chinese products, which offer high quality at lower prices, gradually eroding the US's quality advantage.

In the global robotics density ranking, the US ranks tenth, and even after adjusting for wages, its adoption rate of automation technology is 49% lower than expected.

Despite its leading position in AI technology, the US robotics industry has developed slowly.

There is a lack of consistency at the policy level, with bills such as the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act facing the risk of repeal due to government turnover.

The economic structure is more inclined towards digital innovation and service industries, leading many companies to outsource production to lower-cost regions, thereby deepening dependence on Chinese manufacturing.

Currently, automation and robotics technology are undergoing a fundamental transformation, heralding the imminent full automation of manufacturing and key industries, which will profoundly change the structure of the global economy.

China has made significant achievements in robotics, with annual robot installations reaching 276,000 units in 2023, accounting for 51% of the global total.

In contrast, the US faces numerous challenges in robotics development, with manufacturing outsourcing weakening its industrial base, excessive supply chain dependency on China, and a large import of key components and materials.

Moreover, the US lacks a long-term national strategy and ranks only tenth in robotics density, inconsistent with its technological prowess.

The development of the robotics industry is crucial. If the US does not take proactive measures to strengthen strategic planning, rebuild supply chains, and cultivate professional talent, it may gradually fall behind in the competition for the global robotics economy.

The Industry Faces Competition Between Chinese Manufacturing and American Algorithms

Leveraging its advantages in rare earth processing and reducer localization, China is poised to control 70% of the production capacity of core components, becoming the primary production base for global robotics hardware.

Meanwhile, the US relies on its strengths in areas like 3D printing technology and composites to maintain competitiveness in the high-end market.

In terms of software ecosystems, Tesla's Optimus plan aims to leverage its Full Self-Driving (FSD) algorithm to build a closed ecosystem and charge third parties for licensing fees.

Conversely, Chinese companies such as Huawei and Baidu tend to launch open-source robotics operating systems to attract the participation of small and medium-sized enterprises.

This diversification of software ecosystems will open up more possibilities for the future development of the humanoid robotics industry.

China's strategy focuses on industrial chain integration and cost control, rapidly occupying the mid-range market through policy promotion.

The US, on the other hand, relies on cutting-edge algorithms and capital intensity to build technical barriers and dominate the high-end market.

In the next five years, the two sides may move towards a mode of 'differentiated symbiosis' – China will lead in education, service robots, and the supply of core components, while the US is likely to maintain a monopoly position in the high-end industrial and medical robotics markets.

And based on its first-mover advantage, China is expected to dominate the future robotics industry and steer the development trend of the global robotics economy.

By 2023, China's new robot installations reached 276,000 units, accounting for 51% of the global total, surpassing the combined installations of the US, Japan, South Korea, and Germany.

Simultaneously, the localization pace of China's robotics industry is accelerating, with the domestic enterprises' market share in the local market steadily increasing from 30% in 2020 to 50% in 2023.

In contrast, the US lags behind in the robotics industry.

The US has a significant dependency on China for the production of key robotics components.

For instance, the cost of building a robotic arm similar to the Universal Robots UR5e is approximately 2.2 times higher in the US than in China.

Even if some components are labeled 'Made in USA', they still largely rely on parts and materials made in China, and there are currently no effective alternatives.

The Implementation of the Domestic Robotics Industry is Being Promoted Nationwide

'Embodied intelligence' was included in the Government Work Report for the first time, with local leaders personally taking charge. For this emerging field, they actively layout the embodied intelligence industry through various methods such as research, discussion meetings, and policy formulation.

In the hardware sector, the domestic supply chain for core robotics components, including motors, sensors, reducers, bearings, etc., is no longer nascent.

Compared to domestic manufacturers' product solutions, the technical route for humanoid robotics hardware has gradually converged, with most core components under development and some nearing maturity, leading to a high degree of localization.

Taking humanoid robots as an example, their technology can feed back into the intelligent driving field of the urban new energy vehicle industry.

Currently, mainstream automakers are striving to commercialize L3 autonomous driving technology.

The entry of humanoid robots into automobile manufacturing plants enables the collection of more physical environment data, achieving a closed data loop and thus improving the coordination efficiency between vehicles and intelligent systems.

2024 is anticipated to be the peak period for the infusion of funds into the robotics industry, with various provinces, cities, and regions establishing robotics industry funds, and multiple industry funds with a scale exceeding 10 billion have been successively set up.

Since the beginning of the year, robotics funds have also been launched in Guangdong, Jiangxi, Tianjin, Nanjing, Suzhou, and other locations.

According to industry experts' predictions, by 2025 and 2026, the shortage of funds in the robotics industry is expected to be alleviated, which will drive the iterative update of humanoid robot systems and accelerate their commercialization.

Conclusion:

2025 marks a new era of mass production for the humanoid robotics industry and a pivotal moment in the fierce competition between China and the US in the technology field.

China holds significant advantages in industrial chain integration and cost control, while the US relies on advanced algorithms to build technological advantages.

Looking ahead, the two countries may achieve a state of 'differentiated symbiosis'.

China will dominate in education, service robots, and the supply of core components, while the US is likely to dominate the high-end industrial and medical robotics markets.

However, irrespective of technological advancements, building a global governance framework will be crucial.

Silicon Base Research Institute: [2025: Who Will Claim the Title of the 'First City of Robotics'?]
Kechuangban Daily: [Robotics: The Next Frontier in the National Strategy of the United States?]
Xinwen Report: [The Ascendance of Humanoid Robotics: New Forces Shaping Industrial Transformation and the Future Landscape Amidst China-US Competition]
AgeTech New Horizon: [The Great China-US Robotics Clash: Who Will Reign Supreme in Productivity by 2025?]
Entrepreneurship Institute of Nanjing University: [The US Lags Behind in the New Labor Economy: Challenges in Robotics and China's Emergence]
AI Tech Port: [Driven to Action! US Robotics Firms Unite to Seek Mutual Support]