Introduction

A surprising trend has emerged in the automotive industry:

Despite January typically being a sluggish month for car sales, the gasoline vehicle market experienced a mini resurgence. How does this impact the future of electric vehicles and autonomous driving?

Today, Unmanned Vehicles (public account: Unmanned Vehicles) delves into this intriguing topic.

(For related reading, please click:

Comparison of New Energy Vehicles vs. Gasoline Vehicles: Environmental Impact, Economics, Driving Experience, and Technological Trends - Who Will Dominate Mobility?)

I. Unexpected Revival of Gasoline Vehicles: January Sales Rebound - An Electric Vehicle Handout or False Dawn?

In January 2025, China's automotive market saw an unexpected twist: gasoline vehicle sales rebounded, while electric vehicle sales plummeted.

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, domestic gasoline vehicle sales in January reached 1.16 million units, down 15.1% year-on-year but up month-on-month, seemingly reclaiming market share from electric vehicles.

Electric vehicle retail sales, however, dropped 42.9% month-on-month, with the penetration rate falling from over 50% to 41.1%, earning the title of "winter diving champion."

Three Factors Behind Gasoline Vehicle Revival:

Spring Festival Boost

During the Spring Festival travel rush, gasoline vehicles' convenience of refueling and driving away immediately contrasted sharply with electric vehicles' "one hour of charging and two hours of queuing." Netizens joked, "Driving an electric car home? Might as well carry a power bank and walk!"

Price Wars

Models like the Volkswagen Sagitar offered discounts of 40,000 yuan, Buick Verano Pro slashed prices by 50,000 yuan, and even Toyota joined the "fire sale," driving gasoline vehicle prices down to "cheaper than used electric cars."

Policy Lifeline

The "end-of-life care" provided by the national trade-in subsidy policy allowed gasoline vehicles to reap the last wave of benefits.

Industry insiders summarized, "This rebound is like a middle-aged uncle suddenly hitting the gym - a brief excitement that can't hide the overall decline."

II. Electric Vehicles: Winter Range Anxiety and Autonomous Driving as a Pipe Dream?

While gasoline vehicles enjoyed a resurgence in January, electric vehicles faced range reduction, charging station issues, and owner frustrations - a triple hit bringing them back to reality.

Range Reduction Reality: Real-world tests by Beijing owners showed that a new electric vehicle model with a nominal range of 600 kilometers saw its range halved in -10°C conditions. One owner commented, "Driving an electric car in winter, the range is like a jerk's promise - just listen to it."

Charging Station Freeze: At a highway service area in Northeast China, charging stations collectively went into "hibernation," leaving owners queuing for three hours to charge. Netizens joked, "This isn't charging; it's like cultivating immortality and crossing tribulations."

Autonomous Driving Pipe Dream: New energy automakers once boldly claimed that "autonomous driving will save the world," but the reality is:

L2-level assisted driving has become standard, but users only use it as "advanced cruise control." Tesla's FSD China version costs 64,000 yuan, but its functionality has shrunk to "automatic lane changes like a drunk driver," prompting owners to complain, "This money is enough to buy ten years of gasoline; what am I getting out of this?"

L3 implementation is difficult. Huawei and Xpeng claim to mass-produce L3 in 2025, but policy responsibility is still unclear, leading automakers and users to pass the buck: "Who will take the blame?"

BYD's "Divine Eye" intelligent driving system covers models priced at 70,000 yuan, seemingly a good deal, but user tests reveal a gap from full autonomous driving.

III. The Struggle for Survival: Is Gasoline Vehicle Revival an Aid or Obstacle for Autonomous Driving?

The resurgence of gasoline vehicles may seem to hinder autonomous driving, but there are hidden opportunities - traditional automakers are forced to transform, and autonomous driving has become a lifeline.

Gasoline Vehicles' "Roundabout Way to Save the Country" Strategy

Hybrid Extension: Toyota and Honda are promoting plug-in hybrid models, ostensibly embracing new energy but in reality "giving gasoline vehicles a shot in the arm with electric technology."

Intelligent Driving Features Trickle Down: Volkswagen Sagitar is equipped with L2-level assisted driving at a price of 120,000 yuan, with the slogan, "Gasoline vehicles can also drive autonomously, outcompeting new forces!"

Three Breakthrough Directions for Autonomous Driving

Rural Surrounding Cities: Xpeng and Huawei are targeting lower-tier markets, promoting automatic parking functions in county towns. Elders exclaim, "This car can find its own parking spot? More reliable than my son!"

Exporting to Change the Battlefield: In January, exports of plug-in hybrid vehicles surged 1.7 times, and BYD is building a factory in Vietnam, using a combination of "autonomous driving + low prices" to dominate the Southeast Asian market.

Hardcore Technology to Combat Range Anxiety: CATL's Qilin 5C battery is in mass production, offering a range of 300 kilometers with just 5 minutes of charging. Owners joke, "Finally, no more playing mahjong at service areas waiting to charge!"

IV. The Ultimate Prophecy: In 2025, Which Will Fade First - Gasoline Vehicles or Autonomous Driving?

Gasoline Vehicles' "Sunset Glow"

Short-term Lifeline: Relying on policy subsidies and price wars, they can struggle until 2026, but face daily criticism for "three sins: high fuel consumption, expensive maintenance, and driving restrictions discrimination."

Long-term Decline: By 2030, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 70%, and gasoline vehicles will become "museum pieces."

Autonomous Driving's "Eve of Dawn"

Battle for L3 Implementation: Huawei ADS 3.0 and Xpeng XNGP compete for the title of "first mass-produced L3," with the stakes being tens of billions of market value and user trust.

Responsibility Division Determines Survival: If policies clearly state that "automakers take the blame," autonomous driving will experience an explosion; if "users take the blame," it will forever remain a "futures function."

Magical Realist Outcome Prediction

Optimistic Version: By the end of 2025, L3 autonomous driving will be widespread, and gasoline vehicle owners will tearfully replace their cars: "I once laughed at electric cars for being stupid; now I feel like an antique."

Pessimistic Version: Automakers collectively slack off, turning L3 into a "lifetime beta version," with users furiously denouncing, "Autonomous driving? More like automatic digging of graves!"

Sci-fi Version: Musk acquires Waymo and merges it into "Automatic Bankruptcy Inc.," live-streaming a rocket launch to send the stock code to Mars before the share price hits zero.

In summary, Unmanned Vehicles (public account: Unmanned Vehicles) believes that gasoline vehicles' January "false revival" is a fleeting resurgence amidst technological change. As BYD targets lower-tier markets with its "Divine Eye," Huawei capitalizes on L3, and Tesla deceives investors with FSD, the battle for autonomous driving is no longer about gasoline vs. electric but about who can truly allow users to "let go." For gasoline vehicles, it's time to film "Fast & Furious 12" while they still can - in a few years, audiences will have forgotten the roar of an engine.