Original content by New Energy Outlook (ID: xinnengyuanqianzhan)

Total words: 3230, Reading time: 11 minutes

Throughout the long history of automotive development, fuel vehicles have long held a dominant position. The roar of gasoline engines once symbolized an era.

However, with the rapid evolution of technology, the sudden rise of new energy vehicles (NEVs) has taken everyone by surprise. In particular, the booming development of battery swapping stations and the accelerated popularization of charging facilities are gradually transforming the landscape of transportation.

Imagine entering a battery swapping station as effortlessly as you would a gas station, where in just a few minutes, you can replace your battery and continue your journey. This convenience is unparalleled by traditional charging methods.

As of January 31, NIO has established 3,106 battery swapping stations nationwide, with plans to extend this service to every county progressing steadily. CATL aims to build 1,000 chocolate battery swapping stations by 2025, with a medium-term goal of 10,000 and an ultimate goal of 30,000 to 40,000. CATL Chairman Zeng Yuqun predicts that by 2030, battery swapping, home charging, and public charging will each account for one-third of the market.

Now envision a supercharging station with a maximum power of 600 kilowatts. Electricity flows seamlessly through the charging gun into your vehicle, enabling efficient energy replenishment at a rate of "one second of charging equals one kilometer of range."

Once the reigning king, fuel vehicles are now under siege from all sides. Is it really the case that they have only five years left in the spotlight? Very likely.

1. The Aggressive Expansion of Battery Swapping Stations

Ringing the Death Knell for Fuel Vehicles

In recent years, the field of NEVs has witnessed rapid development, with battery swapping stations injecting new vitality into this sector. NIO's battery swapping stations are well-known, especially CATL's chocolate battery swapping stations. Their ambitious plans to build no fewer than 30,000 battery swapping stations in the future will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the entire NEV industry.

Currently, CATL has signed cooperation agreements with numerous automakers, encompassing renowned brands from both domestic and international markets. These automakers value not only CATL's leading position in battery technology but also the convenient energy replenishment model offered by chocolate battery swapping stations.

Image/Chocolate Battery Swapping Station

Source/Screenshot from the Internet, New Energy Outlook

NIO, a pioneer in the NEV industry, has also achieved remarkable results in the field of battery swapping stations. Since its inception, NIO has heavily invested in the construction of these stations. Since the first battery swapping station became operational on May 20, 2018, as of January 31, 2025, NIO has provided over 64 million battery swapping services nationwide, with a cumulative total of 3,106 battery swapping stations, including 964 stations along highways.

Image/NIO Charging and Battery Swapping Network Layout

Source/Screenshot from the Internet, New Energy Outlook

NIO's "battery swapping, supercharging, home charging" tripartite model offers users a comprehensive energy replenishment solution. For users with fixed parking spaces, home charging meets daily nighttime charging needs. For long-distance travel or emergencies, battery swapping stations and supercharging stations provide timely and rapid energy replenishment services.

Judging from the battery swapping stations deployed by CATL and NIO, their advantages are evident in multiple aspects. On the one hand, the batteries in these stations adopt a unified standard, ensuring stable battery quality and performance. On the other hand, through big data and intelligent algorithms, battery usage is monitored and managed in real-time to identify potential issues in advance and ensure user safety.

Compared to fuel vehicles, the battery swapping model offers obvious advantages in terms of energy replenishment convenience. While refueling fuel vehicles is faster, the distribution of gas stations is relatively limited, especially in remote areas or emerging cities where refueling may not be convenient. If the planned layout of battery swapping stations is realized, it will greatly improve the energy replenishment dilemma faced by NEVs.

Battery swapping stations can be distributed in every corner of the city, even at key nodes such as highway service areas, allowing NEV users to quickly replenish energy anytime and anywhere. This improvement in convenience undoubtedly poses a significant challenge to the status of fuel vehicles. The energy replenishment advantage that fuel vehicles have long relied on is gradually being dismantled by the battery swapping model.

2. The Counterattack of 420,000 Charging Stations

Demonstration and Leadership of the "City of Supercharging"

In the development of NEVs, Shenzhen serves as a model. This city, brimming with innovation and vitality, has now become a veritable "City of Supercharging."

As early as the end of April 2024, Shenzhen had already built 362 supercharging stations, surpassing the number of traditional gas stations, and the number of charging guns also exceeded that of fuel guns. The latest data reveals that by the end of 2024, Shenzhen had cumulatively built 1,030 supercharging stations, 100 integrated stations for photovoltaic energy storage and vehicle-grid interaction, and 134,000 new charging piles, bringing the cumulative total to 420,000 charging piles.

These charging piles are located in public parking lots, residential areas, commercial complexes, and other places throughout the city, providing convenient charging services to citizens. For instance, at the Lianhuashan Supercharging Station in downtown Shenzhen, the supercharging pile with a maximum charging and discharging capacity of 600 kilowatts showcases the strength of the "City of Supercharging." Charging here for just over 10 minutes can provide a range of 500 kilometers. Charging twice a month is sufficient to meet the needs of daily commuting and weekend drives.

Image/Lianhuashan Supercharging Station

Source/Screenshot from the Internet, New Energy Outlook

It is understood that it usually takes 7-8 hours to fully charge a household vehicle using a slow charging pile and 1-2 hours using a fast charging pile. However, in Shenzhen, using the supercharging pile at a supercharging station, over 80% of the battery can be charged in 10 minutes or less, achieving "one second of charging equals one kilometer of range."

It is no coincidence that Shenzhen was able to surpass traditional fuel facilities with charging facilities in a very short period. Strong policy support played a crucial role. The Shenzhen government has issued a series of policies to encourage the development of NEVs and the construction of charging facilities, promoting the popularization of charging facilities in all aspects from land planning, financial subsidies to technical support.

Market demand is also a significant factor. With the rapid economic development of Shenzhen, people's travel needs are constantly increasing. NEVs, with their environmental protection and economic advantages, are favored by more and more consumers.

Statistics show that the number of NEVs in Shenzhen has increased explosively in recent years, with the penetration rate of NEVs exceeding 75% of the total vehicle population. Such a large base of NEVs has also attracted businesses to increase their investment in charging facility construction in Shenzhen.

Image/Shenzhen's NEV penetration rate reaches 75.9%

Source/Screenshot from the Internet, New Energy Outlook

Shenzhen's successful experience provides valuable lessons for other cities nationwide. Taking Shenzhen as a microcosm, we can clearly see the accelerating trend of charging facility popularization across the country. With the continuous guidance of policies and the growing market demand, more and more cities are beginning to increase their efforts in charging facility construction, planning to substantially increase the number of charging piles and stations in the coming years.

In the near future, no matter which city you are in, you will be able to easily find charging piles to charge your NEVs, while fuel vehicles may face difficulties in refueling.

In this scenario, consumers will inevitably be more inclined to choose NEVs when purchasing a car. The disadvantages of fuel vehicles in terms of energy replenishment convenience will become increasingly prominent, their market share will gradually be eroded by NEVs, and their living space will be further squeezed.

3. The Five-Year Limit

Is This the Countdown to the End of Fuel Vehicles?

Based on the current rapid development of battery swapping stations and the accelerated popularization of charging facilities, combined with the development trend of the entire automotive industry, we can boldly predict that fuel vehicles may indeed lose their mainstream status in just five years.

Judging from the layout of battery swapping stations, once CATL's plan to build 30,000 battery swapping stations is gradually realized, it will form a vast battery swapping network nationwide. This will not only greatly enhance the convenience of energy replenishment for NEVs but also attract more consumers to choose them. Simultaneously, the continuous investment of automakers like NIO in battery swapping station construction will further consolidate the market position of the battery swapping model.

Image/CATL's plan for 30,000 battery swapping stations

Source/Screenshot from the Internet, New Energy Outlook

The speed of charging facility popularization is even more astonishing. Like Shenzhen, charging facilities have surpassed fuel facilities in a very short period. At this rate, it will inevitably become a trend for the number of charging facilities nationwide to surpass that of fuel facilities. When charging facilities become as ubiquitous as gas stations today, the convenience of using NEVs will be comparable to or even superior to that of fuel vehicles in some aspects.

Apart from changes in energy replenishment convenience, fuel vehicles' own disadvantages in terms of emissions and energy efficiency are becoming increasingly apparent. Fuel vehicle emissions are not environmentally friendly, and energy conversion efficiency is relatively low. The thermal efficiency of traditional internal combustion engines is generally around 30% to 40%, meaning that most of the energy generated by fuel combustion is wasted. In contrast, the energy conversion efficiency of NEV motors can reach over 90%, enabling more efficient energy utilization. This difference in energy efficiency gives NEVs an advantage in usage costs.

As the market share of NEVs continues to expand, the fueling ecosystem is gradually declining. In bustling areas of some cities, the scenes of long queues at gas stations that were once common are now increasingly rare. The income of gas stations is closely related to the number of fuel vehicles. The continuous decline in the number of fuel vehicles directly leads to a shrinking profit margin for gas stations.

Some gas stations are beginning to experience operational difficulties due to insufficient income covering expenses. Those located in remote areas or highly competitive locations are facing even greater challenges and have even begun to gradually withdraw from the market and close down. The decrease in the number of gas stations means that fuel vehicle owners may need to spend more time searching for gas stations, especially in emerging or remote areas where refueling becomes significantly more difficult. Sometimes, to refuel their vehicles, owners have to detour, wasting a lot of time and energy.

Image/Sinopec's net profit in the third quarter of 2024 decreased by 16.6% year-on-year

Source/Screenshot from the Internet, New Energy Outlook

Domestic automakers have also adjusted their direction, focusing most of their resources on NEVs, with technological innovation also centered on NEVs. Except for personalized models, fuel vehicles have basically placed their market overseas, and overseas represents only the final chapter for fuel vehicles.

In today's society, fuel vehicle owners are often labeled as conservative and outdated, while those driving NEVs are seen as innovative and fashionable. The social atmosphere has also passed judgment on fuel vehicles.

Undoubtedly, the automotive industry is undergoing a profound transformation, and the rise of NEVs is unstoppable. Frankly speaking, fuel vehicles will not disappear suddenly, but in a sense, when their absolute numbers are replaced by NEVs, the time left for fuel vehicles to linger on may be much faster than we imagine. Five years is actually a long time; the facts will always exceed our expectations. Let's make a five-year bet and let reality give the final answer.