When was the last time you boarded a bus? Many find it a challenging question to answer. For many, particularly city dwellers, buses seem a distant mode of transportation. Recently, reports of shrinking buses and profitability issues have been frequent. What lies ahead for buses?

I. The Challenges Facing Buses

According to China News Weekly, a trend towards smaller buses is emerging in cities across China. Qingdao residents have noticed a decrease in large buses, replaced by various "mini buses" navigating through streets and alleys. Similarly, in Shenzhen, from bustling city centers to remote villages, compact buses are becoming a new street sight, particularly on subway connecting lines and microcirculation routes.

Cheng Shidong, Director of the Urban Transportation Research Center at the National Development and Reform Commission's Institute of Comprehensive Transportation, explains, "The 'mini buses' in Shenzhen and Qingdao reflect efforts to strengthen the integration of subways and buses. As subway ridership increases, cities are enhancing this connection. Microcirculation routes prefer 'mini buses.'"

An industry insider admits that introducing subway connecting lines helps address declining passenger numbers. "Over ten years, ridership has nearly halved. Now, mainly elderly and students use buses." A 20-year Shenzhen bus driver notes high vacancy rates outside rush hours, with buses often carrying only two or three passengers. Even on holidays, buses fail to reach capacity. The driver believes young people increasingly opt for subways or electric bikes, posing a significant challenge to the public transportation system.

Transport Ministry data shows conventional bus ridership increased from 1998 to 2014 but has declined since 2015. In 2023, ridership reached 41.63 billion, just 67% of 2019's and 53% of 2014's.

China Business Herald reports that in 2023, the average urban rail transit operating cost per vehicle-kilometer was 34.3 yuan, with revenue of 17.6 yuan, resulting in an average operating expenditure ratio of 64.2%. Most cities' ticketing revenue fails to cover operating costs, with larger cities facing greater deficits, totaling over 200 billion yuan.

When asked about current operating conditions, many bus company personnel sighed. "With diverse transportation options, fewer people ride buses. Most bus companies face insufficient revenue to cover expenses, making innovative operations a priority." Multiple bus company personnel told reporters.

II. Navigating the Future of Bus Profitability

Faced with growing challenges, how should we view and analyze the future of buses?

Firstly, what led to buses' past glory? Limited public transportation options meant buses and taxis were essential. High taxi fares burdened frequent users, making buses the preferred choice due to their lower fares.

Bus routes covered various city regions, connecting residential areas, commercial districts, schools, and workplaces. Buses accommodated morning commuters, students, and shoppers, with convenient stops facilitating transfers. In many cities, buses became mobile city business cards, showcasing the city's landscape. Conductors provided enthusiastic service, answering route questions, and helping passengers. Cities posted slogans and cultural patterns on buses, making them carriers of city culture. Buses were not just transportation but an integral part of city life.

Secondly, what caused buses' decline? There are two main reasons. Firstly, the diversification of public transportation impacted buses significantly. With urban development and technological progress, major cities expanded subway networks, offering speed, punctuality, and large capacity, unaffected by ground traffic. In cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, subways cover main areas, making it easy to reach various destinations. In contrast, buses lag in speed and punctuality, often delayed by traffic congestion.

Secondly, shared bicycles solved the "last mile" problem. Previously, short distances from bus stops to destinations discouraged bus use. Shared bicycles near stops enable quick, flexible travel to destinations, saving time.

Moreover, the popularity of private cars and online car-hailing services further impacted buses. With improving living standards, private car ownership increased, allowing flexible travel arrangements. Online car-hailing platforms offer quick matching, competitive pricing, personalized services, and promotional activities, attracting riders from buses.

Thirdly, what is buses' current predicament? Passenger sources have shifted, with buses mainly used by the elderly and students. Elderly people, enjoying preferential policies and not minding travel time, still rely on buses. Students, especially those in primary and secondary schools, find bus fares attractive, with schools arranging fixed routes.

This shift poses significant market pressure. Reduced passenger volumes decrease bus companies' operating income, increasing financial strain. Fewer passengers lead to decreased bus frequencies, further reducing attractiveness and causing a vicious cycle.

Fourthly, what should buses do in the future? Despite challenges, buses remain a vital supplement to subways. To achieve profitability, buses need innovative solutions. Buses represent slow city life travel modes. By enhancing cultural aspects and customized services, they retain significant value.

We suggest two strategies. Firstly, strengthen buses' cultural aspects. As city windows, buses' cultural display and dissemination functions are crucial. Collaborate with local governments and cultural institutions to explore and inherit local culture. Use body painting, interior design, and bus shelter design to promote urban history, culture, and heritage, enhancing city image and attracting tourists.

Secondly, consider customized services. With diverse travel needs, buses can innovate to meet personalized demands. For example, wedding or romantic theme buses can offer unique experiences, featuring festive designs, photo zones, and rest areas.

Despite current challenges like profitability issues and passenger source diversion, buses remain an indispensable part of urban public transportation. The question is how to maximize their role, a test for bus companies.