According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, nationwide production and sales of fuel cell vehicles stood at 5,548 and 5,405 units respectively in 2024, marking a year-on-year decline of 10.4% and 12.6%. This reversal halted the trend of consecutive annual growth in cumulative production and sales since 2021.

On a global scale, data from South Korean research institution SNE Research indicates that total sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles registered worldwide in 2024 amounted to 12,866 units, a decrease of 21.6% compared to 2023. In contrast, sales of lithium-ion battery electric vehicles reached 10.4 million units during the same period, experiencing a year-on-year increase of approximately 14%.

Lithium-ion battery electric vehicles have established a comprehensive product portfolio in the passenger car segment, commanding the market due to advantages such as significantly reduced battery costs, extensive charging infrastructure, and high consumer acceptance. Conversely, in the commercial vehicle sector, where hydrogen fuel cells were once heralded with great expectations, development has encountered obstacles.

Mike Nakrani, CEO of VEV (Vehicle Electrification Ventures), who has hands-on experience in hydrogen fuel cell development for heavy-duty vehicles through joint ventures with Ford, Daimler, and Ballard Power Systems, believes that hydrogen energy has yet to demonstrate suitable characteristics for market adaptation.

He asserts that Chinese pure electric vehicles have already established dominance across various passenger car segments. Furthermore, some Chinese pure electric vehicle products have ventured into the European market, encompassing not just small urban commuters but also medium and large family sedans, SUVs, and other models, all demonstrating robust adaptability to pure electric power. Lithium-ion battery electric vehicles are now expanding their reach into mining trucks weighing 16 tons, 26 tons, 44 tons, and even 264 tons. Customers can now purchase heavy-duty trucks equipped with batteries for regular transport routes.

Professor David Cebon from the UK's Centre for Sustainable Road Freight contends that the efficiency of hydrogen fuel cell stacks lags significantly behind that of lithium-ion batteries, posing efficiency challenges in the process of energy conversion and transmission. For instance, when 100 kWh of electrical energy is used to produce hydrogen through electrolysis and other methods, and the hydrogen is then transported and stored in fuel cell vehicles, only approximately 23% of the energy is ultimately utilized effectively by the vehicle during the process of conversion into hydrogen, storage, transportation, and reconversion into electrical energy.

In contrast, lithium-ion battery electric vehicles effectively utilize 69% of the 100 kWh of electrical energy. It can be argued that the efficiency of lithium-ion batteries is three times that of hydrogen fuel cells in the process from power generation to delivery to the vehicle.

Moreover, the storage of hydrogen presents another challenge. Storing hydrogen in its gaseous form requires high-pressure tanks to compress it into a very small volume and high pressure. When compared to a tanker truck carrying a specific amount of diesel energy, a hydrogen storage method compressed to 250 bar would necessitate at least 20 hydrogen tanker trucks to achieve the same energy carrying capacity. In other words, the transportation efficiency of hydrogen is considerably lower than diesel when storing the same amount of energy, necessitating more vehicles to accomplish the same task.

If hydrogen is stored in liquid form, it must be frozen to -253°C. Even then, eight such equivalent tanker trucks are still required to match the energy consumption of diesel.

The third hurdle is transportation. Nakrani notes that due to the high cost of hydrogen storage solutions, transporting hydrogen from point A to point B at a competitive cost is extremely difficult. Consequently, industry leaders in the truck market generally believe that hydrogen fuel cells may have limited applications but within a very narrow scope. In the future, at least 80%-90% of the heavy-duty truck market will be dominated by electric vehicles. Moreover, the narrow application field of hydrogen fuel cells will prevent their costs from reaching the economic scale necessary to address inefficiency issues.

For the oil and gas industry and automakers of fuel-powered vehicles, choosing hydrogen energy represents a convenient transition. Previously reliant on fossil fuels, they can now utilize green fuels to maintain their business models and retain existing customers. They have strong incentives to advocate for the success of hydrogen energy. Among current mainstream automakers, Toyota and Hyundai continue to explore hydrogen energy pathways.

However, the future of hydrogen energy remains uncertain and distant for now.

Typesetting by Zheng Li

Source: Forbes

Image Source: Shutu.cn