Grok3 assessed that the current FSD rollout in China resembles a "half-baked" technology investment.

Author｜Zhang Wen

Editor｜Wang Bin

Cover｜Unsplash

Frenzy

The frenzy commenced on February 25th.

On this day, Tesla owners who had purchased HW4.0 models and spent 64,000 yuan on the FSD feature abruptly discovered that Tesla had unexpectedly rolled out a system update equipped with some FSD features to Chinese car owners.

One owner who had bought FSD alongside their car last year stated that on the first day of the system update, they drove for four to five hours to experience it, covering over a hundred kilometers.

News apps incessantly pushed notifications about Tesla FSD entering China, constantly emphasizing that "the battle for smart driving in China is about to commence." Most automotive bloggers hastily sought out Teslas with FSD functionality to test. Some claimed it took them "four hours to search all over Shanghai" to finally find one, while others even specifically picked up a new Tesla, "rushing to pick up a refreshed Model 3," only to find that the update had not arrived yet.

Many Tesla owners seized this opportunity to exclusively rent their vehicles to the media, and the latest daily rental price for a Tesla with FSD functionality has soared to 4,000 to 5,000 yuan per day, several times higher than the previous daily rental price for an ordinary Model 3.

A car rental dealer told "Shan Shang" that there aren't many Tesla models that have successfully received the FSD feature update at present, and all six Teslas in his possession have been successfully rented out. "There are no cars available if you want to use them," he said. "If you want to experience it yourself, I suggest waiting. The current price is 4,500 yuan per day, and it's not necessary."

From yesterday to today, live streams about Tesla FSD tests on social platforms have been non-stop, and every live stream seems to be labeled as the "first test in China," continuing until late at night.

Some local Tesla stores also sold cars under the guise of live streaming FSD. In the live streams, salespeople introduced the FSD that had finally entered China while driving and enthusiastically invited viewers to make appointments for test drives in the store. Even many live streams previously unrelated to cars also came to ride the wave of traffic. For example, a female clothing seller on Douyin live streamed actual FSD tests for two consecutive days.

Tesla's official Weibo account did not promote this update externally, only emphasizing that the first batch of refreshed Model Y began delivery. This is consistent with their usual approach. Musk shared a domestic media video testing FSD on the X platform.

Representatives of China's new car-making forces seized this opportunity to express their views and promote their own smart driving and latest products.

Li Xiang, the founder of NIO, is one of Tesla's first Chinese car owners. He said, "Tesla has always been a good role model for us in the field of smart electric vehicles," and took the opportunity to promote NIO's upcoming pure electric SUV i8.

A few hours after Li Xiang's Weibo post, he reiterated, "I heard that many media and KOLs are now testing Tesla FSD. We welcome everyone to compare NIO with FSD anywhere in the country." He announced that NIO's latest AD training model would be fully rolled out the next day, "I am confident in comparing NIO AD Max V13 with Tesla FSD V13!"

He Xiaopeng, whose sales have been continuously growing in recent months, said, "A warm welcome." He stated that the entire smart driving industry would have more interesting exchanges and mutual promotion and then emphasized that Xpeng and Tesla are the first companies in the world to apply large model end-to-end technology to smart driving and mass produce it.

Chen Zhuo, president of AITO, said he was "very happy" to see the news that Tesla was updating its software to deploy FSD in China and hoped to have the opportunity to exchange experiences, learn from each other's strengths, and jointly promote the development of smart driving for all.

Not Enough Points to Deduct

Since Tesla began implementing FSD in North America last year, news about FSD entering China has buzzed incessantly, occasionally ringing loudly.

Musk's sudden visit to China may have paved the way for FSD to enter China. The refreshed models have been launched, and the landing of FSD is not far off. Even Tesla's declining sales can attract discussions about FSD, as it is considered by many as Tesla's sales savior.

Previously, Musk has repeatedly promised the timing of FSD entering China, but like his talk of a cheaper Model Q, these promises have been repeatedly delayed since then.

There have been so many speculations about FSD entering China that it has almost become a "wolf is coming" story in the eyes of ordinary consumers. Just one day before Tesla officially rolled out FSD in China, Bloomberg reported that Tesla was planning to land FSD in the country but did not specify the specific landing time, only stating "in the future."

Contrary to most people's expectations, on February 25th, without any promotional actions, Tesla rolled out the FSD system update to Chinese car owners.

However, those Tesla owners who were filled with expectations and hoped to experience the full-fledged FSD may have felt disappointed on the first day.

Many Tesla FSD road test videos circulating online show that Tesla is somewhat out of place on domestic roads. For example, it often invades bus lanes and sometimes ignores traffic lights, with many violations.

Many people on social platforms joked, "12 points are not enough for FSD to deduct." Someone else cleverly said, "If you see Tesla running red lights in the city recently, don't be surprised. This must be testing FSD..."

Some automotive media praised in their actual test videos that FSD's performance is decisive, it can drive smoothly on complex roads, and can autonom plan routes, etc. Chen Zhen, an automotive blogger who has experienced FSD in North America, said that Tesla's domestic version of FSD performs better than the domestic average, "better than I expected."

Musk discussed the difficulties of landing FSD in China during Tesla's earnings call in January this year. For example, there are regulatory issues. Domestic regulations require that autonomous driving training data not be exported, while the United States restricts the export of advanced GPUs. Tesla has no way to deploy a supercomputing center similar to the United States in China.

He helplessly said that they could only find videos of Chinese roads online for training. "This is not an ideal solution, but it is a solution that can allow FSD to adapt to Chinese roads." After FSD was launched in China, Musk also posted on X to confirm that they only used publicly available videos of Chinese roads on the internet for training.

One of the difficulties is also the difference in road regulations between China and the United States. Also during the earnings call in January, Musk said that one of the biggest challenges FSD faces in China is bus lanes. American roads do not have similar designs, while domestic bus lanes often prohibit private cars from entering during specific hours.

Lacking data and unable to conduct on-site road tests in China, the current Tesla FSD is more like a foreign driver directly copied from the United States. Many automotive bloggers gave similar evaluations after field experience.

Yesterday (February 25th), Tesla's stock price closed down more than 8%, and its market value fell below 1 trillion US dollars. Since the beginning of this year, Tesla's stock price has fallen by more than 25% cumulatively. Market analysis said that the stock price decline is partly related to Tesla's sharp decline in European sales, and some media also said that FSD's performance in China is not as good as Musk's previous promises.

Tesla customer service told the media that the smart assisted driving currently launched in China is only at the L2 level and cannot yet achieve the fully autonomous driving function of FSD in the United States.

A "Half-baked" Technology Investment

Tesla sold more than 650,000 new cars in China last year, a record high. But the vast majority of car owners did not choose FSD.

Part of the reason is the high price - this smart driving assistance feature is priced at 64,000 yuan, and most Chinese new energy vehicle companies provide smart driving functions for free, while a small number of companies have prices far lower than Tesla's.

But the more important reason may still be that FSD has not been able to land in China for a long time. On social platforms, many car owners who ordered FSD self-deprecatingly called themselves "chives." They paid for the technology in advance because they trusted Tesla, but met with a long wait.

Especially for Tesla owners who purchased HW3.0 hardware earlier, FSD currently only supports HW4.0. Although Musk has promised that HW3.0 models will also be upgraded, there is still no specific timetable. "FSD enters China, and Tesla's old chives are cut again," one old Tesla owner said on social platforms.

Most domestic automotive industry insiders welcomed Tesla FSD's entry into China, believing that Tesla will play a similar "catfish effect" to when it was sold in China 10 years ago, accelerating the popularization of smart driving.

The competition in China's new energy vehicle market is far more intense than in other parts of the world. A year ago, Chinese automakers were only simply competing to open cities and emphasizing whether smart driving was mapless or mapped in various situations. Models equipped with high-level smart driving are mostly limited to the price range of 200,000 yuan and above, and there are few models equipped with smart driving in the 100,000 yuan price range, which has the largest sales share.

But just two months into this year, the situation has changed. BYD, which has been considered weak in smart driving in the past, released the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" smart driving system at the beginning of the year, declaring the beginning of the era of smart driving for all, and even the 70,000 yuan Haiou will also be equipped with a smart driving system.

With Chinese automakers rolling out smart driving as a standard or even free feature, the current FSD, priced at up to 64,000 yuan, is difficult to attract more price-sensitive ordinary users - especially when its capabilities cannot yet significantly outperform domestic automakers. He Xiaopeng of Xpeng Motors said that if high-level smart driving wants to be promoted globally, it must achieve "standard basic hardware, free software, and frequent OTA updates."

Even in North America, where FSD has been fully implemented, the high price of FSD has deterred many users. Bloomberg previously pointed out that the high pricing of FSD is one of the key reasons limiting the purchase rate.

In April last year, the price of FSD in North America dropped significantly from 12,000 USD to 8,000 USD, and the subscription fee was halved to 99 USD. This is also the price level when FSD was first launched, and outside comments said it was due to market pressure.

Musk also required Tesla employees to demonstrate FSD to consumers during car delivery. For this purpose, they also provided a free one-month FSD trial for Tesla owners in the United States. However, the electric vehicle media Electrek later said that according to credit card data, only about 2% of Tesla owners purchased FSD after the free trial.

Musk refuted on X that the purchase rate was much higher than 2%. The suggestion of Grok3, an artificial intelligence company owned by Musk, is that FSD is a cutting-edge representative of advanced technology, but the balance between performance and price still needs time to optimize. "It is worth a try for users willing to pay for the future; for users pursuing immediate practicality, it may currently be slightly expensive."

For Chinese car owners, Grok3's assessment is that the current FSD in China is more like a "half-baked" technology investment. The price of 64,000 yuan is on the high side for most car owners, and its practicality is limited by insufficient localization and policy uncertainty.

"It is recommended that Chinese Tesla owners weigh according to their own needs: if they pursue immediate convenience, postpone their purchase; if they are optimistic about long-term returns, they can try moderately, but they need to be psychologically prepared - the real 'full autonomous driving' may still take a few years." Grok3 replied.