(ID: xinnengyuanqianzhan) Original

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According to Jiu Pai News, executives from Deep Blue Auto and Li Auto recently engaged in a dialogue regarding allegations that the Deep Blue S09 copied the design of the Li L9. Responding to the plagiarism accusation, 'Brother Ying' commented that Li Auto's ideal smart travel series had "grown again," while Deep Blue Auto countered that it was indeed in the same class. With price points starting at RMB 409,800 for the Deep Blue S09 and around RMB 350,000 for the Li L9, it was suggested that Li Auto might face challenges in maintaining its competitive edge in 2025.

Li Auto has firmly established itself as a leading brand among new forces in the automotive industry, with total sales reaching 441,995 vehicles in the first 11 months of this year. Last month, it officially announced that it had sold over one million vehicles, cementing its position as the "king of extended-range vehicles."

Moreover, companies such as Hongmeng Zhixing, Leap Motor, AVATR, and Zeekr are also focusing on developing extended-range vehicles, posing a threat to Li Auto. Even Xiaomi Automobile has announced its intention to produce an extended-range vehicle aimed at high sales volumes.

Perhaps due to the diversification of its product offerings, Li Auto has set a preliminary sales target of 700,000 vehicles for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 30%. This appears considerably more conservative compared to Xiaomi's over 60%, NIO's 50%, XPeng's 48.57%, and Leap Motor's 40%.

Notably, in early 2024, Li Auto had set a sales target of 800,000 vehicles.

With the launch of multiple pure electric SUVs in 2025, Li Auto will have more products to offer, but it is adopting a cautious growth strategy.

1. **Extended-Range + Copycat Strategy: Li Auto Easily Hits One Million Sales**

While most new car companies struggle to sell over 10,000 or 20,000 vehicles per month or reach annual sales of 300,000, Li Auto, also a newcomer, celebrated the production of its millionth vehicle.

Image/Li Auto's Millionth Vehicle Production
Source/Screenshot from new energy observation on the internet

On November 19, Li Auto announced that its brand sales had surpassed one million vehicles. Among them, over 210,000 Li ONEs (now discontinued) were delivered, alongside over 230,000 Li L9s, 200,000 Li L8s, and 250,000 Li L7s respectively. The Li L6, launched in April this year, delivered over 150,000 vehicles in less than eight months due to its affordable price.

For both vehicle manufacturers and the industry, accumulating sales of over one million vehicles signifies maturity. As the first new energy vehicle company in China to surpass one million sales, Li Auto achieved this feat in just 58 months.

At the Li Auto millionth vehicle production ceremony held in Changzhou, Jiangsu, Li Xiang, Chairman and CEO of Li Auto, stated, "Li Auto insists on cooperating with local high-quality suppliers and continuously improving the supply chain system and management standards. In the future, we will embrace the technological changes of the smart electric vehicle era, continuously improve product quality and service levels, so that more families can choose Li Auto's products with confidence."

Indeed, continuously improving product quality and service levels can attract consumers. However, the fundamental reason for Li Auto's success lies in its pioneering adoption of extended-range power.

Initially, in the early stages of China's new energy vehicle boom, extended-range technology was scorned by industry insiders and manufacturers due to its relatively simple technical structure. Vehicles equipped with extended-range power were even labeled as 'transitional products.' However, with market development, changing consumer demands, and significant increases in Li Auto's sales, extended-range power has transformed from being questioned as an 'industry-recognized poor and outdated technology' to being sought after by more car companies.

As the 'first person to eat the crab,' Li Auto has never shied away from the sales dividends brought by extended-range power. In its official poster celebrating '1 million+ sales,' Li Auto refers to its first product, the Li ONE, as the pioneer of extended range.

Image/Li ONE
Source/Screenshot from new energy observation on the internet

Another reason for Li Auto's easy sales of one million vehicles is undoubtedly its copycat product strategy.

From the largest Li L9 to the smallest Li L6, the four products in the Li L series form a typical ladder progression, fully covering family users with different purchasing power in the price range of RMB 250,000 to RMB 500,000.

This strategy not only quickly covers different consumer groups but also maximizes the amortization of R&D investment, allowing multiple models to be launched within a short period with minimal production line costs.

2. **Li Auto: The Most Conservative Radical?**

With its two sales keys in hand, Li Auto not only achieved cumulative sales of one million vehicles in 2024 but also surpassed 440,000 new vehicle sales by the end of November. This not only demonstrates Li Auto's market competitiveness but also reflects consumers' high recognition of its brand and products.

Although this performance still falls short of Li Auto's annual delivery target set at the beginning of the year, it has not prevented the company from having higher expectations for its 2025 sales target.

According to media predictions, Li Auto has set a 2025 annual sales target of 700,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.57% to 31.42%. Against the backdrop of the new energy vehicle market penetration rate exceeding 50% for five consecutive months, this target appears ambitious and even radical.

However, compared to other automakers, Xiaomi's annual sales are expected to increase by 63.88-66.66%, NIO by 50%, XPeng by 48.57%, and Leap Motor by 40-42% in 2025.

It seems that the top new car sales performer in 2024 has become the most conservative radical.

In fact, there is a reasonable explanation behind this seemingly contradictory strategy of being both radical and conservative. As more and more 'competitors' enter the extended-range market, one of Li Auto's biggest advantages becomes significantly weakened.

According to incomplete statistics, nearly 15 brands with over 35 extended-range vehicles are currently competing in China's new energy vehicle market, with prices ranging from RMB 100,000 to several hundred thousand.

Especially in 2024, installing a 'fuel tank + large battery' has become an industry trend. Many former pure electric vehicle manufacturers, including but not limited to XPeng, Zeekr, IM Motors, Aion, and AVATR, have announced plans to launch or have already launched extended-range products.

After deploying extended-range power, the resulting increase in vehicle sales is evident.

As the 'dark horse' of 2024, Leap Motor has significantly increased its sales since June this year through its 'small Li Auto' product layout strategy, surpassing 30,000 monthly sales in August. In November, Leap Motor achieved over 40,000 monthly sales, leveraging its extended-range power and price advantage.

Image/Leap Motor C11 Extended Range Version
Source/Screenshot from new energy observation on the internet

After launching extended-range models, AVATR delivered over 10,000 vehicles in both October and November, setting new monthly delivery records. It's worth noting that AVATR's cumulative deliveries in the first nine months of this year were less than 40,000.

Image/AVATR 07 Extended Range Version
Source/Screenshot from new energy observation on the internet

In such a market environment, Li Auto must consider how to maintain the differentiation and competitiveness of its products amidst fierce market competition while maintaining aggressive growth. Ensuring stable growth for the brand in a rapidly changing market will not be easy, even for Li Auto, which has already sold one million vehicles.

3. **Will the Next Million Still Rely on the L Series?**

As competition in the automotive industry intensifies, Li Auto's next million sales have become the focus of industry attention.

Many are wondering what else Li Auto can rely on to achieve this goal besides extended-range technology.

Judging from the current market trend, even as more players enter the extended-range market and competition becomes increasingly fierce, the L series will remain Li Auto's mainstay for the next million sales.

However, while extended-range power is the 'golden finger' for Li Auto's sales, relying solely on it is obviously insufficient. Therefore, Li Auto is accelerating its layout in the pure electric market. However, after the failure of the MEGA, Li Auto has not made any substantial new moves.

According to Li Auto's plans, by 2025, in addition to the existing pure electric model Li MEGA and the extended-range L series, five more pure electric models will be launched.

Image/Li Auto's 2025 Plan
Source/Screenshot from new energy observation on the internet

Even though Li Auto has announced its plans, it remains unclear whether these five pure electric models will be launched in the first half of 2025. It's worth noting that the Li MEGA's official launch date was announced and then postponed. Similarly, these five pure electric models were originally scheduled to be launched in the second half of 2024 but were postponed due to certain reasons.

In fact, even if Li Auto's pure electric series is launched as scheduled, it is unlikely to replicate the sales miracle of the L series, given that the domestic new energy vehicle market penetration rate has exceeded 50% for five consecutive months.

Even the L series cannot continue to easily lead in the current market.

Firstly, as mentioned earlier, although Li Auto's extended-range power has gained some recognition among consumers, as more players enter this market and price competition becomes increasingly fierce, companies like AITO, Zeekr, Leap Motor, and XPeng will all pose significant threats to Li Auto.

Luo Lin (pseudonym), who has been planning to replace her car since last year, said that Li Auto was the first brand she considered, with the Li L7 being her preferred model. "Good looks and no range anxiety were the two main factors I considered when looking at the Li L7."

Image/Li L7
Source/Screenshot from new energy observation on the internet

Luo Lin added that as more similar vehicles emerged, many models equipped with extended-range power were priced cheaper than Li Auto's offerings. "Especially after seeing more and more models, I realized that range anxiety for pure electric vehicles has also decreased significantly. Long range, fast charging, and the installation of a home charging pile make it even more appealing."

Secondly, as intelligent driving increasingly becomes an important factor influencing consumers' purchasing decisions, while Li Auto's intelligent driving is not behind in the industry, it has not yet become a prominent label among many brands, like Hongmeng Zhixing and XPeng.

Thus, even if Li Auto's next million sales still rely on the L series, it will not be an easy feat.