Market Reshuffle Intensifies in 2025

The latest shipment report for the Chinese mobile phone market in 2024 has been released. According to market research firm Canalys, China's smartphone market shipped 285 million units in 2024, marking a 4% year-on-year increase.

Source: Canalys

This data signifies the first return to positive growth for China's mobile phone market since it entered a downturn in 2022, providing a much-needed boost of confidence to domestic manufacturers. With the implementation of the mobile phone subsidy policy in 2025, shipments are anticipated to further surge.

Huawei Spearheads Growth, Apple Continues to Decline

Canalys' data reveals that Huawei led the Chinese smartphone market with a remarkable 37% annual growth rate, making it the only brand among the top five to exceed 15% growth. Besides this impressive growth, Huawei's market share also rose to second place, accounting for 16% of the market with shipments of 46 million units.

Source: Leitech

Despite not matching Huawei's growth rate, vivo emerged as the top-performing brand in 2024 with an 11% increase. It was also the only other brand among the top five, besides Huawei, to record positive growth, capturing 17% of the market share with shipments of 49.3 million units.

Source: Leitech

Apple, OPPO, and Honor, also featured in the list, fared less well. Although Apple retained its third position, shipments fell by 17%, narrowly avoiding being overtaken by Huawei for second place.

Apple's performance in 2024 has been disappointing, with declines in each of the first three quarters. It even briefly fell out of the top five in shipment rankings. Even the highly anticipated fourth quarter, with the release of the iPhone 16 series, failed to significantly boost Apple's market performance. Instead, due to the early launch of several Android flagships and Huawei's Mate 70 series, iPhone shipments in China plummeted by 25% in the fourth quarter.

In contrast, Huawei's shipments surged by 24% in the fourth quarter. Most models of the Mate 70 series remained out of stock, with only limited colors of the standard version available. The Pro and higher versions, with a small number supporting pre-orders, will be shipped within 7-30 days. The iPhone 16 series generally saw a price drop of 1000 yuan, and on platforms like Pinduoduo's Billion Subsidy Channel, the standard version even saw a direct price drop of 1300 yuan, making it available for just 4699 yuan.

While Apple has surpassed Samsung for two consecutive years to become the global leader in smartphone shipments, its market share in China decreased by 1% year-on-year in 2024. Despite this, Apple still accounted for 15% of shipments in the Chinese market.

Source: Apple

OPPO and Honor also experienced declines of 3% in shipments, with their figures closely matching at 42.7 million units for OPPO and 42.2 million units for Honor, both accounting for 15% of the market. Along with Apple, these three brands form the backbone of China's mobile phone market, accounting for 45% of total shipments.

Given Huawei's growth rate, it is plausible that it could overtake vivo to become the top shipper in 2025. Huawei's resurgence has undoubtedly put significant pressure on other brands, with Apple, which shares a large overlapping user base with Huawei, feeling the brunt of this competition. Apple's potential turning point lies in the upcoming iPhone 16E, rumored to bring significant changes to the iPhone 17 series, potentially reinvigorating the brand.

Xiaomi Drops Out of the Top 5 in the Domestic Market

One of the most surprising revelations from the rankings is Xiaomi's absence. While Apple's shipment decline has precedents, Xiaomi's absence is more unexpected given its strong performance throughout 2024.

However, upon closer inspection, this can be attributed to differing statistical methodologies among agencies. Some agencies combine main and sub-brands, while others count them separately. Additionally, statistical methods vary based on operating systems. For example, OPPO and OnePlus, both using ColorOS, are often counted together, whereas realme, using realme UI, is excluded from OPPO's market share.

In Canalys' rankings, Xiaomi and Redmi are likely counted separately. Given their significant sales shares, this dilutes Xiaomi's overall ranking, causing it to fall out of the top five.

Moreover, Xiaomi's increasingly distinct product lines have led to a clear distinction in user groups between Xiaomi and Redmi. Both brands now follow a boutique strategy, focusing on covering different user groups and price segments with a limited number of models. In 2024, Xiaomi released only five series: Xiaomi 14 Ultra, Xiaomi Civi 4 Pro, Xiaomi MIX Fold 4, Xiaomi MIX Flip, and Xiaomi 15 series.

Source: Leitech

The Civi series, targeting the mid-range market, only launched the Pro version, with the standard version discontinued. Xiaomi has completely abandoned the market below 2500 yuan, leaving it to Redmi. Despite the rising average selling price of smartphones, the sub-2000 yuan market still accounts for a significant share and performs well in terms of shipments.

Without Apple's strong ecological dominance, it will be challenging for Xiaomi alone to maintain a top-five position. OPPO and vivo, adhering to a broad product portfolio strategy throughout 2024, have managed to attract consumers with diverse appearances and functional focuses, despite product overlap.

To succeed in the offline market, brands must not only have more stores but also offer a wider range of products at different price points and types, capturing users' attention through frequent new product launches. In this regard, Xiaomi has much to learn from OPPO and vivo.

Market Reshuffle Intensifies in 2025

In my view, the mobile phone market in 2025 promises to be even more exciting than 2024. Huawei completed product updates for all its current series in 2024, all equipped with Kirin chips, marking a significant milestone. Through sales, Huawei has proven that users still have strong dependence and support for its brand and ecosystem.

With its foundational status solidified, Huawei's product line changes and updates in 2025 are likely to be more aggressive and frequent than in 2024. This poses significant pressure and competition for other brands, particularly in the mid-range and entry-level price segments where Huawei's competitiveness is growing daily. The Nova series, once a thorn in many manufacturers' sides, has returned to consumers' attention.

Source: Huawei

In the high-end market, Huawei holds a significant advantage. Globally, if only sales of phones priced above 600 dollars are considered, Huawei ranks third with an 8% share, behind only Samsung and Apple. In the Chinese mainland market, Huawei's share is as high as 33%, with Apple leading at 52%.

While Apple still holds over half the market share above 600 dollars, it has declined by 5% year-on-year, while Huawei has increased by 34%. Considering Huawei's already high market share base, maintaining such growth is impressive. In comparison, Honor and Xiaomi, ranking third and fourth in market share, have only 5% and 3% shares, respectively, far behind Apple and Huawei.

Huawei's challenge is comprehensive, extending beyond specific markets or price segments. This forces other brands to stay vigilant and adapt to Huawei's aggression. Providing better products and more segmented product lines may be a strategic choice, leveraging differentiation to precisely target users and enhance their experience.

Meanwhile, international players like Apple and Samsung are expected to respond. The iPhone 16E, iPhone 17, and the upcoming Samsung S25 series will all bring new impacts, further stirring up the competitive landscape.

The mobile phone market is poised for a dynamic year in 2025. Let's wait and see how it unfolds.

Source: Leitech